Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
