Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
